Measured
$13.50
Current average wage
Average American: Minimum Wage Meal Cost Calculator
If the minimum wage rises to $25, what happens to meal prices?
A $25 minimum wage would double average wages in many U.S. restaurants. How much of that gets passed to customers?
Scenario inputs
Build the restaurant meal scenario
Claim to test
How much of the wage increase reaches the menu?
This scenario model starts with the current meal price, wage baseline, labor share, profit margin, and pass-through rate. It estimates the new meal price needed under the selected assumptions.
Modeled
$25.00
Target minimum wage
Calculated
85.2%
Wage increase from baseline
Calculated
$14.06
Additional calculated amount per meal: $3.23
With a 100.0% pass-through assumption, the modeled meal price changes by $3.23. For 360 household meals per month, that is $1,162.42 in additional monthly spending.
Calculated
Current meal cost structure
Estimated dollars from the current meal price using the selected cost shares.
Modeled
Meal price by pass-through rate
Shows how the modeled meal price changes as restaurants absorb or pass through more of the added labor cost.
Scenario results
What the current assumptions produce
Current meal price
Measured$10.83
Current restaurant cost
Calculated$10.40
Wage increase
Calculated85.2%
Labor-cost pressure
Calculated29.8%
Cost passed to consumer
Modeled$3.10
Cost absorbed by restaurant
Modeled$0.00
New restaurant cost
Calculated$13.50
New consumer meal price
Calculated$14.06
Profit per meal
Calculated$0.56
Monthly household increase
Calculated$1,162.42
Sources to anchor defaults
Built to be replaced by imported source data
BLS Occupational Employment and Wage StatisticsRestaurant occupation wage baselines by occupation, geography, and industry.BLS Consumer Price IndexFood-away-from-home price trends and restaurant price index context.USDA ERS Food Price OutlookFood-at-home and food-away-from-home inflation outlook and historical context.Census ARTS / Annual Integrated Economic SurveyIndustry receipts, gross margins, and detailed operating expense benchmarks.
Limitations
Scenario model, not a prediction
Average wage is not the same as legal minimum wage. Restaurants also vary widely by service type, geography, tips, staffing model, rent, insurance, food mix, and purchasing power.
Results estimate price pressure from wage assumptions only. Actual operators may raise prices, absorb lower margins, reduce hours, adjust staffing, change portions, automate tasks, or close locations.