Average American: Rent Cap Sustainability Calculator

Test whether rent-stabilized buildings stay financially sustainable.

Change rent growth, expense growth, debt service, CapEx reserves, and the starting financial distribution to see how quickly operating cushions erode.

Individual scenario

Building assumptions

Individual scenario

How long will this building stay afloat?

These charts follow one representative building using the rent, expense, debt, and CapEx assumptions currently selected.

Measured

$1,681

Starting collected rent

Measured

$1,203

Starting operating expenses

Calculated

28.4%

Starting operating margin

Modeled

2 yr 1 mo

Representative building survival before cash flow turns negative

Measured + modeled

Monthly revenue allocation

The vertical bar treats collected rent as 100% of monthly revenue and shows how much is consumed by each selected cost assumption.

$1,681

Monthly rent revenue

Operating expenses71.6%
$1,203 per unit/month
Debt service14.9%
$250 per unit/month
CapEx reserve7.4%
$125 per unit/month
Positive cash flow6.1%
$103 per unit/month

Modeled

Representative building timeline

Cash flow becomes negative after 2 yr 1 mo. X-axis shows simulation years. Y-axis shows dollars per unit per month for rent, operating expenses, and positive or negative cash flow after debt and CapEx.

At year 10, modeled cash flow after debt and CapEx is -$492 per unit/month.
Rent revenueOperating expensesPositive/negative cash flow

Calculated annually

Individual scenario results

These rows show the representative building at the starting point, midpoint, and final simulation year.

Year 0

28.4% margin
Rent
$1,681
Expenses
$1,203
Cash flow
$478
After CapEx
$103

Year 5

12.5% margin
Rent
$1,681
Expenses
$1,471
Cash flow
$210
After CapEx
-$165

Year 10

-7.0% margin
Rent
$1,681
Expenses
$1,798
Cash flow
-$117
After CapEx
-$492

Broader market model

How does the scenario affect the starting building pool?

These charts apply the starting building-count distribution to the selected assumptions. The market view is modeled from operating-margin buckets, not building-level records.

Broader market

Starting building distribution

Total 100.0%

These percentages divide the starting building count by operating-margin bucket before debt and CapEx. The wheel updates as the inputs change.

Modeled

Financial distribution in year 10

Tap a slice to inspect the modeled status, building count, and ending margin for that cash-flow group.

Each slice starts from the market distribution inputs. Status reflects the selected growth, debt, and CapEx assumptions at the end of the simulation.

Cash Flow Negative (< 0%): 920 buildings

Operating stress

Cash Flow 0-5%: 2,100 buildings

Operating stress

Cash Flow 5-10%: 2,800 buildings

Operating stress

Cash Flow 10-15%: 2,300 buildings

Operating stress

Cash Flow 15-20%: 1,300 buildings

Operating stress

Cash Flow 20%+: 580 buildings

Operating stress

Modeled

Cash Flow Timeline By Cash Flow Group

Each line represents one starting operating-margin group. A group drops when that bucket is no longer modeled as positive after operating expenses, debt service, and CapEx reserve.

Assuming 0% annual rent growth, 4.1% annual expense increases, debt service of $250/mo, and CapEx of $125/mo, cash flow would be negative for all building cash flow groups after 1 year.

Cash Flow Negative (< 0%)

920 starting buildings, negative at start.

Cash Flow 0-5%

2,100 starting buildings, negative at start.

Cash Flow 5-10%

2,800 starting buildings, negative at start.

Cash Flow 10-15%

2,300 starting buildings, negative at start.

Cash Flow 15-20%

1,300 starting buildings, negative at start.

Cash Flow 20%+

580 starting buildings, turns negative after year 1.

Modeled

Market sensitivity by rent-growth scenario

This is a broader-market sensitivity chart. Each line reruns the building-pool model with a different rent-growth assumption while holding the other selected assumptions constant.

Best year-10 scenario: 4% rent growth with 1,880 positive buildings.
Market readout: By year 10, the strongest scenario is 4% rent growth, with 1,880 buildings still modeled as positive cash flowing, or 18.8% of the starting group. The weakest scenario is -1% rent growth, with 0 buildings, or 0.0%.

Sources and methods

Sources

Calculated

  • Operating Cash Flow = Rent - Operating Expenses
  • Operating Margin = Operating Cash Flow / Rent
  • Cash Flow After Debt
  • Cash Flow After CapEx Reserve

Modeled

  • Distribution of buildings by financial health
  • Time until maintenance stress
  • Time until capital stress
  • Time until debt stress
  • Long-term sustainability projections