Research investigation / November 10, 2026

Grocery Inflation Fell From 13.1% to 1.1% by July 2024

The annual rate of grocery price increases slowed between July 2022 and July 2024, although the overall grocery price index remained higher.

Editorial grocery basket and long receipt, without numerical data on the cover.

Average-American.net grocery inflation editorial graphic

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Question

How did annual grocery inflation change between July 2022 and July 2024?

Claim being tested

BLS reported 13.1% food-at-home inflation in the 12 months through July 2022 versus 1.1% through July 2024, a 12.0-percentage-point decrease in the annual inflation rate.

The BLS food-at-home CPI rose 13.1% over the year ending July 2022 and 1.1% over the year ending July 2024. That is a 12.0-percentage-point decrease in the annual rate, not a 12% drop in grocery prices.

Competing story frames

Fact-based response

What the data actually show

MEASUREMENT — The BLS food-at-home Consumer Price Index tracks prices for groceries purchased for home consumption. These are unadjusted 12-month changes for July of each year.

COMPARISON — BLS reported 13.1% year-over-year grocery inflation in July 2022 and 1.1% in July 2024. The difference is 12.0 percentage points. Both rates were positive.

Source data comparison

Annual grocery inflation in July

Published source data
X-axis: 12-month period ending
Y-axis: Food-at-home CPI change (%)
Annual grocery inflation in July. BLS CPI-U, unadjusted 12-month changes for July 2022 and July 2024. Lower inflation is not a lower price level.
Category%
July 202213.1%
July 20241.1%

BLS CPI-U, unadjusted 12-month changes for July 2022 and July 2024. Lower inflation is not a lower price level.

PRICE LEVELS — Grocery inflation slowing does not mean prices fell. The unadjusted food-at-home index was 292.972 in July 2022 and 306.643 in July 2024, an increase of about 4.7% across those dates.

Source data comparison

Grocery price index level

Published source data
X-axis: Month
Y-axis: Food-at-home CPI index
Grocery price index level. Unadjusted BLS food-at-home CPI-U index, 1982–84=100. Grocery prices remained higher in July 2024 than July 2022.
Categoryindex
July 2022292.972 index
July 2024306.643 index

Unadjusted BLS food-at-home CPI-U index, 1982–84=100. Grocery prices remained higher in July 2024 than July 2022.

POSSIBLE DRIVERS — Food prices respond to commodity costs, energy, labor, transportation, supply chains, weather, demand and competition. This national comparison cannot isolate immigration's contribution or the effect of any particular policy.

NEXT STEPS — Compare grocery prices with regional household incomes, local costs, and actual policy effective dates. National CPI alone cannot establish causal effects on local affordability.