Research investigation / November 9, 2026

Texas Governor Votes: Where the 2022–2026 Growth Went

A reproducible comparison of Texas governor votes in 2022 and preliminary 2026 returns shows large Democratic gains and smaller Republican gains. The 95% statistic measures the share of net major-party vote growth, not individual voter switching or evidence of irregularities.

Editorial illustration of Texas election ballot boxes comparing the 2022 and 2026 governor elections; no numerical chart embedded.

Original election research cover graphic

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Question

How did Republican and Democratic Texas gubernatorial vote totals change between 2022 and preliminary 2026 returns?

Claim being tested

Between the 2022 and preliminary 2026 Texas governor results, Democratic votes increased by 1,677,133 and Republican votes by 87,428. Democrats accounted for about 95.0% of the net increase in the two parties' combined votes.

Democratic gubernatorial votes increased from 3,553,656 in 2022 to 5,230,789 in preliminary 2026 returns. Republican votes increased from 4,437,099 to 4,524,527. Of the combined 1,764,561 additional votes for these two parties, about 95.0% were additional Democratic votes.

Competing story frames

Fact-based response

What the data actually show

THE COMPARISON — The 2022 Texas gubernatorial election recorded 4,437,099 votes for Republican Greg Abbott and 3,553,656 for Democrat Beto O'Rourke. The November 9, 2026 preliminary returns list 4,524,527 votes for Abbott and 5,230,789 for Democrat Gina Hinojosa. The 2026 totals remain subject to updates and certification.

Source data comparison

Texas governor major-party vote totals

Published source data
X-axis: Candidate and election
Y-axis: Votes
Texas governor major-party vote totals. 2022 final returns; 2026 preliminary returns as of November 9, 2026. Comparing candidates and elections does not track individual voters.
Categoryvotes
2022 Republican4,437,099 votes
2022 Democratic3,553,656 votes
2026 Republican4,524,527 votes
2026 Democratic5,230,789 votes

2022 final returns; 2026 preliminary returns as of November 9, 2026. Comparing candidates and elections does not track individual voters.

REPRODUCING THE 95% FIGURE — Democrats: 5,230,789 minus 3,553,656 equals 1,677,133. Republicans: 4,524,527 minus 4,437,099 equals 87,428. Their combined increase is 1,764,561. Dividing the Democratic increase by that total gives 95.05%, or approximately 95%. This is the share of net growth in votes for the two major parties, not the share of all voters or a measurement of people changing parties.

Source data comparison

Net vote increases, 2022 to 2026

Published source data
X-axis: Major party
Y-axis: Additional votes
Net vote increases, 2022 to 2026. Democratic growth divided by the sum of both parties' vote increases equals 95.05%. This is not evidence of voter switching.
Categoryvotes
Democratic1,677,133 votes
Republican87,428 votes

Democratic growth divided by the sum of both parties' vote increases equals 95.05%. This is not evidence of voter switching.

VOTE LEVELS AND MARGINS — The 2022 two-party Democratic share was about 44.47%; the preliminary 2026 share is about 53.62%. Different candidates and election conditions mean a changed vote share cannot tell us how any particular person voted in both years.

TURNOUT CONTEXT — Texas had about 8.10 million total gubernatorial ballots in 2022 and 9.91 million in preliminary 2026 returns. The total electorate grew, so increases in party votes do not automatically indicate that voters switched sides. Population, registration, turnout, third-party votes and candidate differences matter.

GEOGRAPHIC PATTERNS — The Texas Tribune's preliminary county-level analysis reports particularly strong turnout increases in urban and border counties and changes in Democratic margins across urban, suburban and rural areas. These patterns warrant a county-by-county comparison using finalized returns.

WHAT THIS DOES NOT SHOW — The 95% net-growth statistic does not establish fraud, vote transfers, a coordinated algorithm, or the 85/15 pattern circulating online. Testing those separate claims requires precinct-level official records, comparable denominators, explicit null models and independent checks. The preliminary 2026 totals may change.

NEXT DATA RELEASE — After the Texas Secretary of State certifies the 2026 results, update these figures and publish county-level turnout, party margins and vote totals. Keep the gubernatorial 2022–2026 comparison distinct from presidential 2024–2026 cross-office comparisons.